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河南省居民1988—2012年女性乳腺癌死亡率趋势分析及预测

许林平, 刘阳, 张萌, 阴蒙蒙, 刘曙正

许林平, 刘阳, 张萌, 阴蒙蒙, 刘曙正. 河南省居民1988—2012年女性乳腺癌死亡率趋势分析及预测[J]. 肿瘤防治研究, 2015, 42(01): 65-68. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2015.01.016
引用本文: 许林平, 刘阳, 张萌, 阴蒙蒙, 刘曙正. 河南省居民1988—2012年女性乳腺癌死亡率趋势分析及预测[J]. 肿瘤防治研究, 2015, 42(01): 65-68. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2015.01.016
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XU Linping, LIU Yang, ZHANG Meng, YIN Mengmeng, LIU Shuzheng. Time Trend and Prediction of Mortality of Female Breast Cancer Patients in He'nan Province, 1988-2012[J]. Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment, 2015, 42(01): 65-68. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2015.01.016
Citation: XU Linping, LIU Yang, ZHANG Meng, YIN Mengmeng, LIU Shuzheng. Time Trend and Prediction of Mortality of Female Breast Cancer Patients in He'nan Province, 1988-2012[J]. Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment, 2015, 42(01): 65-68. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2015.01.016
shu

河南省居民1988—2012年女性乳腺癌死亡率趋势分析及预测

  • 1.450008 郑州，郑州大学附属肿瘤医院科研外事办；2.450001 郑州，郑州大学公共卫生学院社会医学与卫生事业管理教研室；3.450008 郑州，河南省肿瘤医院肿瘤防治研究办公室

详细信息
    作者简介:

    许林平（1978-），女，博士，主治医师，主要从事恶性肿瘤的综合治疗研究

    通讯作者:

    刘曙正，E-mail：liushuzheng2004@126.com

  • 中图分类号: R737.9

Time Trend and Prediction of Mortality of Female Breast Cancer Patients in He'nan Province, 1988-2012

  • 1. Department of Scientific Research and Foreign Affairs，The Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450008, China; 2. Department of Social Medicine and Health Service Management, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou450001, China; 3. He'nan Cancer Research and Control Office, He'nan Cancer Hospital,Zhengzhou 450008, China

摘要

    摘要
  • 摘要: 目的 探讨河南省居民1988—2012年女性乳腺癌死亡率变化趋势，对河南省未来（2013— 2020年）的乳腺癌死亡率进行预测。方法 从河南省癌症及生命统计中心数据库中抽取河南省1988—2012年死于乳腺癌的全部记录及相应时期的人口数据，计算各时期死亡率、中国标准人口调整死亡率及世界标准人口调整死亡率，用Joinpoint 模型估计死亡率的时间变化趋势。运用贝叶斯年龄- 时期-队列模型对河南省 2013—2020年的乳腺癌死亡率进行预测。结果 河南省女性乳腺癌标化死亡率从1988—1992年的2.68/10万上升至2008—2012年的5.04/10万。30岁以上年龄组死亡率随年龄增加而快速增加。Joinpoint模型趋势参数显示， 城市地区乳腺癌死亡率2000年前呈上升趋势，近年来轻微下降，农村地区呈持续上升趋势。预测结果显示，2013—2020年，城市地区乳腺癌粗死亡率变化不大，而农村粗死亡率从7.84/10万上升到9.14/10万。结论 河南省居民女性乳腺癌死亡率在1988—2012年呈上升趋势，未来（2013—2020年）农村地区乳腺癌疾病负担将明显增加。

     

    Abstract: Objective To investigate the trend of mortality of female breast cancer patients from 1988 to 2012, and to predict the mortality of breast cancer patients from 2013 to 2020 in He'nan Province. Methods The records of female breast cancer patients death and the population data from 1988 to 2012 in He'nan Province were drawn from He'nan Provincial Center for Tumor and Health Statistics Database.The period-specific mortality rates and the age-adjusted mortality rates directly standardized to Chinese population and the world populations were calculated. The time trend of mortality was estimated by Joinpoint model. The mortality of breast cancer patients from 2013 to 2020 in He'nan Province was predicted using Bayesian age-periodcohort model. Results The age-standardized mortality of female breast cancer patients in He'nan Province was rising from 2.68/100,000 during 1988-1992 to 5.04/100,000 during 2008-2012. The age-specific mortality over 30 was increased greatly with age. The trend parameters estimated by Joinpoint model demonstrated that the breast cancer mortality in urban area was increased before 2000 and dropped slightly in recent years, but the rate was increased constantly in rural area. Predictive model showed that the mortality rate in urban area would change little during 2013-2020, however, it would be increased from 7.84/100,000 to 9.14/100,000 in rural area. Conclusion There is an obvious upward trend of mortality of female breast cancer patents from 1988 to 2012. And the burden of breast cancer in rural area would be increased greatly from 2013 to 2020.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2014-08-01
  • 修回日期:  2014-10-26
  • 刊出日期:  2015-01-24

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