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1973—2005年手术治疗食管癌患者5年生存率变化分析

Changes of Five-year Survival Rates in Patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma from 1973 to 2005

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨1973—2005年食管癌手术治疗患者5年生存率的变化规律及影响生存期的关键因素。方法 通过家访和(或)电话问卷调查、生存随访及住院病历复核和临床病理信息采集等,按照首次确诊时间,将这些患者等分为三个时间段,每个时间段11年(1973—1983、1984—1994、1995—2005)。采用卡方检验分析三个11年间磁县医院手术治疗的食管癌患者性别、年龄和临床病理特征的分布,采用寿命表法计算三个时间段5年生存率,利用Kaplan-Meier生存曲线和Log rank检验及Cox生存分析模型分析三个时间段食管癌患者生存率变化和主要影响因素。结果 成功随访3 160例(96.7%)食管癌患者,其中第一时间段984例(31.1%);第二时间段1101例(34.9%);第三时间段1 075 例(34.0%)。三个时间段患者的生存率依次明显提高,5年生存率分别是8%??15%和41%(P=1.2E-77)。第二和第三个时间段中同一病理分期的患者比较,Tis+Ti(早期)和T2期患者5年生存率无显著差异,T3+T4期患者(中晚期)第三个时间段明显高于第二个时间段(P=7.0E-7);均为淋巴结转移阳性的患者,5年生存率明显提高(P=1.5E-13)。Cox回归模型分析提示:性别、淋巴结转移、病变部位和残端癌阳性是影响食管癌预后的独立因素。结论 1973至2005年间食管癌患者总体5年生存率明显提高。三个时间段均为淋巴结转移阳性和中晚期的患者,其5年生存率也明显提高。性别、淋巴结转移、病变部位和残端癌阳性是影响食管癌预后的独立因素。

     

    Abstract: Objective To study the changes of five-year survival (FYS) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after surgical treatment from 1973 to 2005 and to determine the key risk factors for the survival. Methods Follow-up and questionnaires were performed by interview at home and repeated telephones to the patients and their relatives or doctors.Clinicopathological information was collected based on the hospital medical records.Based on the diagnosed year for ESCC,the patients were classifi ed into three groups by 11 years (group 1: 1973—1983,group 2: 1984—1994 and group 3: 1995—2005). Chi-square test was applied to analyze the distribution of gender,age and clinicopathological characters. Survival was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier or life table.The risk factors was researched by Log rank test and Cox model. Results A total of 3 160(96.7%) ESCC patients were followed up successively. There were 984 (31.1%), 1 101 (34.9%) and 1 075 (34.0%) cases, in group 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The overall FYS rate was increased among 3 groups (8%, 15% and 41%, respectively, P=1.2E-77). It was noteworthy that, the FYS rate in group 2 with Tis+T1 and T2 was similar to group 3. However, the FYS rate in group 3 with T3+T4 was signifi cantly higher than that in group 2 (P=7.0E-7). In addition, the FYS rate of ESCC patients with positive lymph node metastasis was increased signifi cantly (P=1.5E-13). Conclusion The overall FYS rates were dramatically improved recently. The FYS rates of ESCC patients with lymph node metastasis and middle and late stage were increased significantly. Gender, lymph node metastasis, lesion sites and positive stump cancer were independent factors for prognosis of ESCC .

     

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