Trend of Lung Cancer Incidence in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, 2006-2015

Objective To analyze the incidence rate of lung cancer from 2006 to 2015 in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province and predict the incidence trend.

Methods Lung cancer cases were derived from cancer registry system of Kunshan. The Fifth National Population Census in 2000 was used to calculate age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) by gender. Annual percentage changes (APC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to examine the temporal trend and the stepwise autoregressive method of time series model was used to predict the incidence rate from 2016 to 2020.

Results Lung cancer ASR increased from 31.55/10⁵ in 2006 to 41.40/10⁵ in 2015(APC=3.1%, 95%CI: 2.0%-4.2%), meanwhile ASR increased in male (APC=1.9%, 95%CI: 0.9%-2.9%) and female (APC=6.1%, 95%CI: 3.7%-8.5%). Moreover, lung cancer ASR were increasing in male (APC=2.0%, 95%CI: 0.8%-3.2%) and female (APC=8.6%, 95%CI: 5.4%-11.8%) in the population aged 30-70 years, but no significant change was observed in male (APC=1.7%, 95%CI: -0.1%-3.5%) or female (APC=2.0%, 95%CI: -1.8%-5.8%) in the population aged above 70 years. The stepwise autoregressive method of time series model demonstrated that the crude incidence of lung cancer showed upward trend in 2016-2020, irrespective of male or female.

Conclusion Lung cancer incidence in Kunshan has risen sharply over the past 10 years and will continue to rise in the following years. Cancer control measures are urgently needed, especially in the population aged 30-70 years.