Objective To explore the gastric cancer mortality temporal trend and quantitatively estimate the influence factors in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, 1981-2014.
Methods Gastric cancer death cases were derived from population-based vital registry system. Crude rates and age standardized rate (ASR) were calculated according to sex and age. Annual percentage changes (APC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained to estimate the temporal trend from 1981 to 2014. Difference decomposition method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality.
Results The age standardized mortality of gastric cancer in both sex (APC=-3.6%, 95%CI: -3.9% to -3.3%), male (APC=-3.9%, 95%CI: -4.3% to -3.5%) and female (APC=-3.5%, 95%CI: -4.0% to -3.0%) were decreased significantly, and cumulative mortality of 0-74 years old was declined significantly in both sex (APC=-4.2%, 95%CI: -4.7% to -3.7%). The decrease of gastric cancer mortality was due to the effect of demographic and non-demographic factors, where the proportion of demography in both sex, male and female were -124.92%, -154.61%, and -117.52%, respectively.
Conclusion The mortality of gastric cancer in Kunshan city has declined due to the effect of non-demographic factors over the past three decades, but the decline is hindered demographic factors.
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