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杜书祥, 郭振, 陈紫来, 王尚鑫, 吴刚. 胃癌术前淋巴结分期不足的危险因素及预测模型的建立[J]. 肿瘤防治研究, 2023, 50(5): 498-504. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2023.22.1254
引用本文: 杜书祥, 郭振, 陈紫来, 王尚鑫, 吴刚. 胃癌术前淋巴结分期不足的危险因素及预测模型的建立[J]. 肿瘤防治研究, 2023, 50(5): 498-504. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2023.22.1254
DU Shuxiang, GUO Zhen, CHEN Zilai, WANG Shangxin, WU Gang. Risk Factors and Establishment of Prediction Model for Preoperative Lymph Node Staging Deficiency in Gastric Cancer[J]. Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment, 2023, 50(5): 498-504. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2023.22.1254
Citation: DU Shuxiang, GUO Zhen, CHEN Zilai, WANG Shangxin, WU Gang. Risk Factors and Establishment of Prediction Model for Preoperative Lymph Node Staging Deficiency in Gastric Cancer[J]. Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment, 2023, 50(5): 498-504. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2023.22.1254

胃癌术前淋巴结分期不足的危险因素及预测模型的建立

Risk Factors and Establishment of Prediction Model for Preoperative Lymph Node Staging Deficiency in Gastric Cancer

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析胃癌术前淋巴结分期(N分期)不足的危险因素,建立术前评估模型,辅助预测术前N分期。
    方法 回顾性分析268例胃癌患者的临床病理资料。患者术前常规行薄层增强CT评估术前N分期,结合术后病理结果分析术前N分期不足的危险因素。Logistic回归分析筛选出的影响因素,Kaplan-Meier绘制术前N分期准确组与不足组的生存曲线,利用R软件包绘制Nomogram图、预测模型的ROC曲线,计算AUC、95%CI、敏感度和特异性。
    结果 年龄、BMI、低分化、Lauren分型为弥漫型是胃癌术前N分期不足的独立危险因素(P < 0.05)。术前N分期不足组预后生存显著差于准确组(P=0.041)。预测模型的ROC曲线AUC为0.935,敏感度为85.9%,特异性为96.9%。
    结论 年龄越小、BMI越高、低分化、Lauren分型为弥漫型是术前N分期不足的独立危险因素。本研究基于年龄、BMI、分化程度、Lauren分型建立的术前N分期评估模型,具有较高的可信度。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the risk factors of preoperative lymph node staging (N-stage) deficiency in gastric cancer and establish a preoperative assessment model to assist in predicting preoperative N-stage.
    Methods A retrospective method was used to analyze the clinicopathological data of 268 patients with gastric cancer. The patients routinely underwent preoperative thin-section enhanced CT to assess preoperative N-stage. Results The risk factors for preoperative N-stage deficiency were analyzed in combination with postoperative pathological findings. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis was performed to determine influencing factors, and Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to plot the survival curves of preoperative N-stage accurate group and deficiency group. The nomogram plot and ROC curves of the prediction model were drawn using the R package. AUC, 95%CI, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated.
    Results Age, BMI, poor differentiation, and Lauren's classification as diffuse were independent risk factors for preoperative N-stage deficiency in gastric cancer (P < 0.05). Prognostic survival was significantly worse in the preoperative N stage-inadequate group than that in the accurate group (P=0.041). The AUC area was 0.935, with a sensitivity of 85.9% and specificity of 96.9%.
    Conclusion Young age, high BMI, poor differentiation, and Lauren's classification as diffuse are independent risk factors for preoperative N-stage deficiency. The established preoperative assessment model based on age, BMI, differentiation degree, and Lauren's classification in this study has relatively high credibility.

     

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