Objective  To explore the risk factors for postoperative recurrence and metastasis of non-small cell lung cancer, and to construct a risk prediction model.

Methods  The clinical data of 278 patients with lung cancer who underwent surgical treatment from May 2011 to May 2014 in Tangshan People's Hospital Affiliated to North China University of Technology were retrospectively analyzed. Postoperative recurrence and metastasis of patients were followed up. The risk model for recurrence and metastasis was established and validated.

Results  Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that tumor differentiation, mediastinal lymph node metastasis, and postoperative pathological staging were independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence and metastasis. A prediction model was established by combining independent risk factors. The prediction model had an AUC of 0.867 and a cutoff of 0.664. The AUC of the validation group was 0.83, and the prediction performance of the validation group was consistent with the modeling group.

Conclusion  The predictive model constructed in this study could predict the risk of postoperative recurrence and metastasis of non-small cell lung cancer to a certain extent.