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许靖, 余欣, 马洪涛, 万蓓欣. 2006—2020年中国肺癌死亡趋势分析——基于年龄-时期-队列模型[J]. 肿瘤防治研究, 2023, 50(8): 788-793. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2023.22.1537
引用本文: 许靖, 余欣, 马洪涛, 万蓓欣. 2006—2020年中国肺癌死亡趋势分析——基于年龄-时期-队列模型[J]. 肿瘤防治研究, 2023, 50(8): 788-793. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2023.22.1537
XU Jing, YU Xin, MA Hongtao, WAN Beixin. Death Trend of Lung Cancer in China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Model[J]. Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment, 2023, 50(8): 788-793. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2023.22.1537
Citation: XU Jing, YU Xin, MA Hongtao, WAN Beixin. Death Trend of Lung Cancer in China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Model[J]. Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment, 2023, 50(8): 788-793. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2023.22.1537

2006—2020年中国肺癌死亡趋势分析——基于年龄-时期-队列模型

Death Trend of Lung Cancer in China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Model

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2006-2020年我国城乡居民肺癌死亡率的流行趋势, 为肺癌防治提供参考依据。
    方法 利用卫生统计年鉴收集2006-2020年我国肺癌死亡数据, 采用年龄-时期-队列模型和Intrinsic Estimator算法评估肺癌死亡的年龄、时期和出生队列效应。
    结果 中国居民2006-2020年肺癌死亡率呈上升趋势, 肺癌死亡风险的年龄效应随年龄增加而增大, 时期效应随年代持续上升, 队列效应说明, 自1924年后出生的居民肺癌死亡风险呈下降趋势。
    结论 应继续加大我国50岁及以上城乡居民肺癌的防治工作力度, 加强对肺癌高风险因素的防控工作, 进一步探究时期效应对肺癌的影响, 注重年轻队列的早期干预。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the trend of lung cancer death rate in China from 2006 to 2020 to provide reference for the prevention of lung cancer.
    Methods The data of Chinese lung cancer deaths from 2006 to 2020 were collected from the health statistical yearbook.The age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to evaluate the age, period, and birth cohort effect of lung cancer deaths.
    Results The overall lung cancer mortality of Chinese residents showed an upward trend from 2006 to 2020.The age effect of lung cancer death risk increased with age, and the period effect continued to increase with age.The cohort effect showed that the lung cancer death risk of residents born after 1924 showed a downward trend.
    Conclusion The prevention and treatment of lung cancer in urban and rural residents aged 50 and above and the treatment of high-risk factors of lung cancer must be continuously strengthened.The period effect on lung cancer should be further explored, and the early intervention of young cohort should be given attention.

     

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