Trends on Morbidity of Colorectal Cancer Among Residents in Xining City of Qinghai Province, 2009-2014
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摘要:目的
分析青海省西宁市居民2009-2014年大肠癌发病情况并预测其发展趋势，为当地大肠癌防治策略提供参考。
方法以2009-2014年青海省西宁市常住户籍居民为研究对象，按1982年中国标准人口和1985年世界标准人口计算大肠癌标化发病率（age-standardized rate, ASR），采用泊松近似法比较年龄、性别率值间的差异，应用Join-point线性回归分析率值的变化百分比（percent changes, PC）和年均变化百分比（annual percent change, APC）并进行趋势分析。
结果西宁市2009-2014年大肠癌新发1 486例，男性850例、女性为636例；合计粗发病率为11.28/10万人年，其中男性粗发病率为12.67/10万人年，女性粗发病率为9.84/10万人年。男性中国标化发病率（8.34/10万人年）高于女性（6.10/10万人年），标化发病比例为1.37:1。男性大肠癌中国标化发病率上升趋势明显（APC=14.06, Z=3.98, P=0.016），女性大肠癌中国标化发病率上升趋势明显（APC=14.01, Z=3.60, P=0.022）合计中国标化发病率上升趋势明显（APC=14.15, Z=6.28, P=0.003）。居民大肠癌发病率从40岁开始随年龄增加而升高，且上升趋势明显（APC=8.30, Z=22.82, P < 0.001）。
结论西宁市大肠癌发病率近年来显著上升，提高大肠癌早诊早治力度，推进大肠癌筛查工作势在必行。
Abstract:ObjectiveTo analyze the incidence of primary colorectal cancer (CRC) among residents in Xining of Qinghai Province from 2009 to 2014, and to provide the reference for local CRC prevention and therapy strategy.
MethodsThe residents of Xining of Qinghai were recruited in this investigation from 2009 to 2014. The morbidities of CRC in gender were calculated and age-standardized rate (ASR) was standardized by the world population in 1985 and the Chinese population in 1982. The trends of CRC from 2009 to 2014 and annual percent changes (APC) were analyzed by Join-point regression program.
ResultsAmong the 1486 CRC cases occurred from 2009 to 2014, 850 cases were males and 636 cases were females. The crude incidence in total was 11.28/100 000 person-year, of which in male was 12.67/100 000 person-year and in female was 9.84/100 000 person-year. The standardized rate of incidence in males (8.34/100 000 person-year) was higher than that in females (6.10/100 000 person-year), and the ratio was 1.37:1. The standardized rate of CRC incidence in male had an obvious upward trend (APC=14.06, Z=3.98, P=0.016), the rate in female had a significantly upward trend (APC=14.01, Z=3.60, P=0.022), and that of the total had also a significantly upward trend (APC=14.15, Z=6.28, P=0.003). There was an obvious upward trend in residents after 40 years old (APC=8.30, Z=22.82, P < 0.001).
ConclusionThere is an obviously upward trend of colorectal cancer in Xining in recent years. And it is imperative to promote colorectal cancer screening and improve the early detection and therapy.
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Key words:
- Colorectal cancer /
- Epidemiology /
- Incidence /
- Trend analysis
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图 1 2009-2014年西宁市居民大肠癌发病趋势
Figure 1 Trend of colorectal cancer incidence rate among residents in Xining of Qinghai, 2009-2014
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图 2 2009-2014年西宁市40岁以上居民年龄别大肠癌的发病率
Figure 2 Incidence rate of colorectal cancer among residents (≥40 years old) in Xining of Qinghai, 2009-2014
表 1 2009-2014年青海省西宁市居民大肠癌的发病情况
Table 1 Incidence of colorectal cancer among residents in Xining of Qinghai, 2009-2014(per 100000 person-years)
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