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2002—2013年上海市浦东新区居民鼻咽癌发病情况及其趋势分析

Trends on Morbidity of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Among Residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai, 2002-2013

  • 摘要: 目的 分析上海市浦东新区居民2002—2013年鼻咽癌发病情况并预测其发展趋势,为鼻咽癌防治策略提供参考。方法 以2002—2013年上海市浦东新区常住户籍居民为研究对象,按1985年世界标准人口计算鼻咽癌标化发病率(age-standardized rate, ASR),应用Join-point regression program分析率值的年均变化百分比(annual percent change, APC)进行趋势分析。结果 2002—2013年浦东新区新发鼻咽癌1 254例,男女发病人数比为2.63:1,合计粗发病率为3.97/10万人年,世界标化发病率为2.29/10万人年,逐年下降的趋势明显(APC=-5.89%, Z=4.77, P<0.001);男性粗发病率为5.76/10万人年,世界标化发病率为3.36/10万人年,逐年下降的趋势明显(APC=-6.19%, Z=4.73, P<0.001);女性粗发病率为2.18/10万人年,世界标化发病率为1.25/10万人年,逐年下降的趋势明显(APC=-5.56%,Z=3.87, P=0.003);居民鼻咽癌发病率在65~69岁时达到最高峰(11.52/10万人年);男性鼻咽癌发病率在70~74岁时达到最高峰(18.56/10万人年) ;女性鼻咽癌发病率在60~64岁时达到最高峰(6.17/10万人年)。结论 浦东新区鼻咽癌发病率近年来呈明显下降趋势, 相关部门应针对重点人群积极开展鼻咽癌病因学研究并应用早期诊断技术以进一步降低其发病率。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze the trends on the morbidity of nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC) among residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai to offer the reference to the prevention and treatment of NPC. Methods The residents of Pudong New Area in Shanghai were recruited in this investigation from 2002 to 2013. The morbidities of NPC were calculated and these rates were standardized by the world population in 1985. The trends of NPC from 2002 to 2013 and annual percent changes(APC) were analyzed by Joinpoint regression program. Results Among the 1254 NPC cases occurred between 2002 and 2013, the rude incidence rate was 3.97 per 100 000 person-year, and the world age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence was 2.29 per 100 000 person-year, and the gender ratio of male vs. female was 2.63:1. The total morbidity had a significant downward trend(APC=-5.89%, Z=4.77, P<0.001 ); the male rude incidence rate was 5.76 per 100 000 person-year, the world ASR of incidence was 3.36 per 100 000 person-year, and the male morbidity had a significant downward trend(APC=-6.19%, Z=4.73, P<0.001 ); the female rude incidence rate was 2.18 per 100 000 person-year, the world ASR of incidence was 1.25 per 100 000 person-year, and the female morbidity had a significant downward trend(APC=-5.56%, Z=3.87, P=0.003 ). The peak of incidence rate of the total was 65-69(11.52 per 100 000 person-year) years old, in male that was 70-74 years old(18.56 per 100 000 person-year) and in female that was 60-64 years old(6.17 per 100 000 person-year). Conclusion It is evident that the incidence of NPC have a significant downward trend in Pudong new area. Therefore, an increased focus on etiological study of NPC and early diagnosis technology application is also required to further control its incidence.

     

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