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泛免疫炎症值对可切除结直肠癌患者预后的预测价值

Predictive Value of Pan-immune-inflammation Value for Prognosis of Patients with Resectable Colorectal Cancer

  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨泛免疫炎症值(PIV)与可切除结直肠癌患者预后的相关性并建立相关的预测模型。
    方法 纳入753例接受原发病灶切除术且病理学诊断为结直肠癌的患者。将其随机分为训练(n=527)和测试(n=226)队列。通过时间依赖性受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线确定PIV的最佳截断值,将患者分为高水平组和低水平组,分析PIV高、低水平组与患者临床病理特征及生存情况之间的关系。卡方检验、Kaplan-Meier生存分析和Cox回归分析来评估预后。C指数和Brier评分评估模型的准确性。
    结果 在总生存期(OS)的单变量模型中,高(> 231)基线PIV(HR=1.627; 95%CI: 1.155~2.292, P=0.005)提示PIV水平可能是OS的独立预后因素。依据PIV绘制的诺模图C指数为0.823。其校准曲线显示1年和3年OS率的预测和观察结果之间具有良好的一致性,OS的Brier评分分别为0.035和0.068。
    结论 PIV可作为可切除结直肠癌患者预后的依据,我们成功建立了一个指导结直肠癌患者临床决策的新型预后模型。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To explore the correlation of the pan-immune-inflammation value (PIV) and the prognosis of patients with resectable colorectal cancer (CRC) and establish a predictive model.
    Methods A total of 753 patients who underwent primary lesion resection and were pathologically diagnosed with CRC were enrolled. They were randomly divided into training (n=527) and test (n=226) cohorts. The best cutoff value of PIV was determined by the time-dependent receiver operator characteristics curve, and patients were divided into high- and low-level groups to analyze the relationship between the high- and low-level groups of PIV and the clinicopathological characteristics and survival of patients. Chi-square test, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate the prognosis. The accuracy of the model was evaluated by C index and Brier score.
    Results In the univariate model of overall survival (OS), high (> 231) baseline PIV (HR=1.627; 95%CI: 1.155-2.292, P=0.005) suggested that PIV level might be an independent prognostic factor for OS. The nomogram plotted according to PIV had a C index of 0.823. Its calibration curve showed good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes for one- and three-year OS probabilities, with Brier score of 0.035 and 0.068 for OS, respectively.
    Conclusion PIV can be used as a prognostic marker in patients with resectable CRC, and a novel prognostic model to guide clinical decision-making in CRC is successfully established.

     

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